FORECASTING
MARKET
the set of all actual and potential buyers of a product
INDUSTRY
a group of firms that offer a product or class of products
that are close substitutes for each other
Market Potential
industry sales under ideal conditions - e.g., if all members
of a market made a purchase
Sales Potential
company sales under ideal conditions - note that this is
related to such issues as market share
Market Forecast
expected industry sales over a given period of time under
a given set of conditions
Sales Forecast
expected company sales over a given period of time under
a given set of conditions
Note that market potential and market forecast have to do with an entire
industry; sales potential and sales forecast have to do with an individual
company.
FORECASTING METHODS
QUALITATIVE:
assume that someone knows the answer; all you have to do is ask them
- Survey of Expert Opinion
- Survey of Buyers' Intentions
- Salesforce Composite
- Delphi Technique (long term)
QUANTITATIVE:
based on numerical relationships
- Time Series/Trend Analysis
use of historical sales data to find patterns to predict future behavior
- Leading Indicators/Relational
use changes in one variable to predict changes in another
- housing starts lead refrigerator sales by a few months
- births lead elementary school enrollments by a few years,
lead college enrollments by a few decades
- Market test
launch the product in selected markets and use sales to predict performance
in other markets
15 JUL 05